Observations, thoughts, connecting dots – by yngso

TRADE PACTS

It’s not being said out loud, but this is what I think is going on: Big countries prefer bilateral trade pacts, because in multilateral ones, several smaller countries with coinciding interests get too strong.

Nixing NAFTA and Brexit are not good ideas in a world which is integrating more and more. The UK is picking a fight with a large block of big and small nations. Good luck with that!

NO FOREVER AND NO TREE INTO HEAVEN

Some traders are puttting less money more short term ino the stock market now, because the relentless rise has become too good to believe. There’s more skepticism about how much further this can go on.

One chartist has seen a possible downturn this week. That may or may not mean anything. The real downturns happens when the whole herd is spooked and the massive selloff starts. Even that can be shortlived like in 1987, but it’s important to remember that there were several crashes from 1929 to 1932. So if things normalize after one crash, it may be too early to sound the all clear. In ’87 it was about a bloated market. Today is like ’29 AND ’87 with a bloated market, and a weak economy which will make matters much worse when the dowturn comes. It always does.

No, I’m not saying that there’ll be an imminent crash. There are indications that the blowoff top isn’t happening yet. What is sure though is that the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Makets rise slowly and crash fast and hard.

A retailcalypse with 23,000 store closings PLANNED in the US before the end of 2018! That will be terrible for employment and construction and the food courts and smaller stores around the big chain stores which are disappearing.

Today Nordstrom and  the Kushners can’t get financing for…wait for it…retail, and high end condos, another disastrous market! Banksters ain’t stupid…

Since the Fed, the WH and DC play their own games and are disconnected from the real economy, they won’t be doing anything about the retailcalypse. When the whole economy is in free fall and there’s a total Ecocalypse – thanks David Stockman for that one – the Fed will wake up and do massive amounts of what hasn’t worked before. Then a very humongous reset will have to happen, but more about that later.

This is not only about the US, but the whole developed world. There are numerous fragilities aka potential black swans worldwide. Key words are corporate and private debt and housing markets. Today I’ve seen the Chinese corporate debt chart. It’s not pretty!

POLS COMPLICATING PR RECOVERY

The Governor of Puerto Rico and the Mayor of the Capital San Juan are opposites politically and don’t collabotate well in a time when that’s more needed than ever. That’s another chapter in the post-Cold War hard left Latin American reality where the FARC was able to get all it wanted in the peace deal farce. Mexico is probably taking a left turn too when the next Prez is elected next year.

 

 

 

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Observations, thoughts, connecting dots – by yngso

DESPERATE inMADURO NARCOCRACY

The Maburro went uninvited to Russia  to ask Czar Putyin for money, but  he didn’t even get a nyet, only a co-selfie before going out the back entrance of the event.

For those of us who know something and care about Vzla and the greater Carribean region and Latin America, watching Vzla disinegrate is frustratingly painful. The country is oil rich, but its people is suffering, and the inMaduro narcocracy  soon won’t be able to pay creditors!?

THE IMF IS WARNING ABOUT CORPORATE DEBT

This is what I’ve gathered about the subject: Making stuff isn’t very attractive any more in the developed world, because most people have been and still are losing purchasing power in the last decades. Share buybacks and dividend payouts boost the stock price, and shareholders and management with stock options benefit. Borrowing money is dirt cheap, so lots of it gets borrowed and fuels the party. When interest rates rise – they’ve been kept too low for too long by the central banksters – the accumulated debt load bomb will explode.

NIXING NAFTA?

That won’t happen for the same reason that the BAT ain’t happenin’. The only consolation for folks with ever diminishing  income is low prices. When real living costs, rent, health care, etc etc etc, rise, it’s even more important that the little that’s left for discretionary spending can buy as much as possible, ie prices must be low. That can’t happen if messing with NAFTA and BAT destroys industry supply lines and makes imported goods expensive.

So the tough talk is for the base, the same folks who would suffer if any of the crazy stuff should actually happen.

BOOMER DECEPTION

Many of us have nice pensions, but we see that many if not most of the x and y gens can’t look forward to the same. Much of what was gained after WWII has eroded away in the last 4 decades or so. IOW, our almost perfect world is falling apart, and we worry about how future gens will live.

EXITS AND VOLUNTARISM

Brexit and Caluñexit are reactions to centralised power. That’s understandable, but how to deal with it is important. So although exiting for many looks like the only solution, let’s look at this:

Top heavy entities like empires don’t work well, and eventually fail. Their upkeep becomes their downfall. Voluntary cooperation works much better than domination. Every country should be a federation. The stronger regions investing in the weaker ones must be voluntary. The EU could be renamed EA – European Association – and the countries cooperating with people, capital, goods and services keep on moving freely. Each country  could have its own currency, and it’s likely that the IMF SDR will replace the USD as intl trade and reserve currency, because the world doesn’t want US domination.

No more USSE and USSA…

USA BECOMING DPRK?

Recently someone said that the USA won’t lose its power as long as its military stays as strong as it is. – But at what price? The US has squandered trillions of $ on wars since WWII, and gained what exactly? Terror and the antagonism of the world!

So the cost of maintaining that military power can be that the people of the USA become dirt poor like those of the DPRK. Many are already suffering from the decline of the middle class, and that tendency is showing no sign of stopping or reversing.

“ELECTIONS” IN VENEZUELA

There’s a discusion about whether to vote or not. I think that both are right. Many will vote against the costituyente assembly, and many will abstain. The same message gets sent, and the “legitimate” base for the inMaduro narcocracy gets eroded. Not that it matters much in the official context, because the final numbers will be made up just like the last time.

1ST VS 2ND

The 2nd Amendment gets a lot more attention than the 1st except when it’s about Orange 45 and fake news. It is of course totally unnecessary to invent anything about the WH disaster which keeps on giving SNL and all the late nighters much more material than they need.

What’s a more real and permanent issue with the MSM is political bias, making a Watergate style investigation just about impossible coming from there. No wonder that there’s a whole new crop of alt-news outlets. Now the the challenge is finding out what’s what and what’s not among them. The good news is that ICT gives all of us the means to compare and find out what makes sense.

There’s no depth. Both amendments get misinterpreted, and that’s a recipe for disaster…

 

SOLVENT BANKS?

The same day very recently I heard that banks are making less money and that they’re getting ready for defaults on auto, student loan and credit card debt. Today I heard that they want to do more of that type of lending! Evidently, greed is keeping risk aversion at bay.

FED POLICY MISTAKES AND SURPRISES

On financial bubblevision news there’s a constant obsession about what the central banksters will do with interest rates and other voodoo in order to manipulate the economy. Most comments are benevolent, but lately some have hinted at the possibility of a policy mistake.

They’re 3 decades late. The original sin/ mistake happened when Alan Greenspan became Fed chief and the rabid greed-driven financialization that became possible after the gold standard was abandoned truly got under way. Now the central banksters are “surprised” when the naughty economy doesn’t do what they want it to do, and of course it’s only transitory, because their models are right and they’re always right. So now, policy mistake, impossible, the economy isn’t doing what it’s supposed to do!