It’s not being said out loud, but this is what I think is going on: Big countries prefer bilateral trade pacts, because in multilateral ones, several smaller countries with coinciding interests get too strong.
Nixing NAFTA and Brexit are not good ideas in a world which is integrating more and more. The UK is picking a fight with a large block of big and small nations. Good luck with that!
NO FOREVER AND NO TREE INTO HEAVEN
Some traders are puttting less money more short term ino the stock market now, because the relentless rise has become too good to believe. There’s more skepticism about how much further this can go on.
One chartist has seen a possible downturn this week. That may or may not mean anything. The real downturns happens when the whole herd is spooked and the massive selloff starts. Even that can be shortlived like in 1987, but it’s important to remember that there were several crashes from 1929 to 1932. So if things normalize after one crash, it may be too early to sound the all clear. In ’87 it was about a bloated market. Today is like ’29 AND ’87 with a bloated market, and a weak economy which will make matters much worse when the dowturn comes. It always does.
No, I’m not saying that there’ll be an imminent crash. There are indications that the blowoff top isn’t happening yet. What is sure though is that the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Makets rise slowly and crash fast and hard.
A retailcalypse with 23,000 store closings PLANNED in the US before the end of 2018! That will be terrible for employment and construction and the food courts and smaller stores around the big chain stores which are disappearing.
Today Nordstrom and the Kushners can’t get financing for…wait for it…retail, and high end condos, another disastrous market! Banksters ain’t stupid…
Since the Fed, the WH and DC play their own games and are disconnected from the real economy, they won’t be doing anything about the retailcalypse. When the whole economy is in free fall and there’s a total Ecocalypse – thanks David Stockman for that one – the Fed will wake up and do massive amounts of what hasn’t worked before. Then a very humongous reset will have to happen, but more about that later.
This is not only about the US, but the whole developed world. There are numerous fragilities aka potential black swans worldwide. Key words are corporate and private debt and housing markets. Today I’ve seen the Chinese corporate debt chart. It’s not pretty!
POLS COMPLICATING PR RECOVERY
The Governor of Puerto Rico and the Mayor of the Capital San Juan are opposites politically and don’t collabotate well in a time when that’s more needed than ever. That’s another chapter in the post-Cold War hard left Latin American reality where the FARC was able to get all it wanted in the peace deal farce. Mexico is probably taking a left turn too when the next Prez is elected next year.